End of day howl!


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United States

  1. We are starting to see the first signs of deterioration in the labor markets, as unemployment applications jump.

  2. The number of hourly employees that are not going to work is rising rapidly.

  3. The Philly Fed's manufacturing report showed that the region's factory activity plummeted this month.

  4. Business activity is deteriorating across the country

  5. Will we see a GDP contraction for the full year? Much will depend on how long the country remains on "lockdown."

  6. Government stimulus should cushion the blow to the economy, with federal programs generating a substantial multiplier effect.

United Kingdom

  1. The Bank of England cut rates and launched a QE program.

  2. The extreme weakness in the British pound is problematic because of the UK's large current account deficit.

Eurozone

  1. The Ifo report suggests that Germany's economy is contracting rapidly as business expectations plummet.

  2. The ECB's €750 bn QE program announcement boosted bond prices.

  3. The markets see the Eurozone remaining in a disinflationary environment for years to come

Asia - Pacific

  1. Japan is headed for deflation again.

  2. Asia's economies have reduced their reliance on foreign capital.

  3. The RBA's QE program announcement pushed Australia's short-term bond yields to new lows.

China

  1. The stock market has sharply outperformed global peers.

  2. According to the World Economics SMI report, the contraction in business activity eased this month.

  3. Large corporates are being directed to provide their smaller suppliers with shadow financing via entrusted loans, according to Pavilion Global Markets

  4. State firms' debt issuance has crowded out the private sector.

  5. Alpine Macro expects GDP to contract by about 4% - the first negative-growth period in China's post-reform history.

Emerging Markets

  1. Central banks continue to ease.

  2. Latin American currencies have underperformed.

  3. Portfolio outflows have been unprecedented.

Commodities