End of day howl!

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United States

  1. The speed of the Federal Reserve's securities purchases has been unprecedented.

  2. Will the Fed's balance sheet reach $9 trillion?

  3. According to BofA Global Research, the Fed will fully fund the massive 2020 deficit. It's the US version of Abenomics.

  4. The US Treasury's cash balances swell to record levels as the federal government prepares for a massive liquidity injection into the economy.

  5. The current quarter's economic contraction is expected to be unprecedented.

  6. Will the 2020 unemployment rate exceed the highest levels of the Great Depression?

  7. Online search activity for the phrase "coronavirus symptoms" has peaked.


  1. Factory activity is collapsing.

  2. Consumer confidence plummeted in recent weeks.

  3. Weak energy prices will boost insolvencies.

United Kingdom

  1. The Prime Minister's health took a turn for the worse, sending the pound lower. Traders remain glum on the pound's prospects over the next few months.

  2. Construction activity shrank last month.

  3. New car registrations are down by over 40% from the same time a year ago.


  1. Germany's factory orders and industrial production were recovering before the onset of the epidemic

  2. The Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence sentiment index hit a record low.

  3. Small and medium-sized businesses are very vulnerable. Here is a quote from ANZ: There were 160.7m people employed in the euro area in February, with 75% of those (120m) in the private sector. On our calculations, if the euro area economy is operating at 50% capacity and half of employees in the idled 50% of the private sector are vulnerable to redundancy or furlough, then 30m jobs are vulnerable. That is almost 20% of pre-coronavirus employment and could be an underestimate. In the EU, there are 13m jobs across tourism-related sectors. Construction, which is being idled, accounts for around 10m jobs. Over half the workforce is employed by small and medium enterprises (SMEs).

  4. Eurozone banks are trading well below book value.


  1. The renminbi has outperformed other EM currencies.

  2. China has a long way to go to meet Phase-1 US trade-deal targets.

  3. Emerging Markets

  4. EM GDP is expected to contract for the first time in decades.

  5. EM currencies are most undervalued since 2008, according to BofA.

  6. Indian stock prices relative to EM are breaking below long-term support (in dollar terms).

  7. Israel's central bank lowered rates back to 10 bps.


  1. Bitcoin's correlation with stocks has spiked this year to 0.5!

  2. And the stock market bounce is showing up in crypto markets.


  1. Aluminum prices hit a multi-year low.

  2. Copper appears to have stabilized.


  1. Excess supply became a significant driver of oil prices in mid-2012 and generally dominated price dynamics after mid-2014, according to the NY Fed. But US crude oil supply is expected to drop substantially next year.

  2. Price changes in Brent crude explain about 64% of the movements in energy-related currencies.


  1. Monday was a good day for stocks, as the S&P 500 rose by 7%. But large gains during bear markets are not uncommon.

  2. Share buyback activity, which was a significant driver of returns, is expected to slow sharply.

  3. Analysts expect a significant deterioration in dividends per share.

  4. US consumers increasingly expect the market to rebound within a year. However, individual-investor positioning at Ameritrade points to caution.

  5. The S&P 500 information technology stocks appear stretched relative to financials.

  6. Bank stocks are at record lows relative to the S&P 500.

  7. The energy sector weight in the S&P 500 is near record lows.


  1. Primary collateralized loan obligation (CLO) markets in the US ground to a halt in mid-March with no new-issue, reset, or refi deals pricing. The first two weeks of the month hit the lowest volume reading in three years, according to S&P.

  2. The muni-bond market rebound.

Global Developments

  1. TD Securities expects a firmer US dollar over the next month or so, similar to what occurred in 2008. However, collapsing US - foreign yield differentials point to US dollar weakness, according to Stifel and we at Currency Wolf agree!

  2. During the March extreme volatility, the S&P 500, Treasuries, and gold became correlated.

  3. COVID-19 infections and Deaths are negatively correlated with Temperature

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